Simulation tests EU feed sector resilience to adverse weather events

EUROPE – A simulation in the EU Agricultural Outlook 2024-2035 examines how an extreme weather event disrupting global oilseed production could ripple through the region’s feed and meat markets, exposing vulnerabilities in the European Union’s reliance on imported proteins for livestock feeds.

The simulation assumes a 15-20% reduction in global soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower yields due to adverse weather in key producing nations, including the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. 

This hypothetical event, modelled for 2035, significantly impacts the EU’s feed sector.  

Global soybean meal prices could surge by 90%, while other oilseeds and oilseed meals might increase by 50% and 40%, respectively. 

These price hikes would ripple into the EU meat markets, raising poultry and pork production costs by 10% and beef and veal by 5%. Retail prices would rise more modestly, with pork up 3% and poultry 4%.  

Efforts to build resilience in the EU livestock sector, such as improving feed efficiency and boosting domestic protein crop yields, could mitigate some impacts. 

By 2035, sunflower and soybean yields are projected to increase by 20-40%, while feed efficiency for non-ruminants like poultry and pigs could improve by 2-4%. 

However, the model suggests these measures would only partially offset the shock’s effects, reducing feed consumption without fully stabilising the markets.  

The report also examines broader EU livestock feed sector trends to 2035. Demand for feed is expected to decline by 2.2% from 2022-24 levels, reaching 39.5 million metric tons of protein equivalent. 

Shifts in consumer preferences, such as growing demand for slow-growing chickens, will increase poultry feed requirements while beef and pig meat production declines.  

Medium-protein feeds will see the steepest drop—down 16%—driven partly by rising pulse consumption. Feed prices, excluding medium-protein feeds, are projected to increase with global trends.  

The findings underscore the EU’s reliance on imports and the importance of resilience-building initiatives to withstand potential market shocks. 

The projections, based on late 2024 macroeconomic data, highlight the need for proactive measures to mitigate future feed and meat production risks.  

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