KENYA – According to a recent State Department for Agriculture report, Kenya is experiencing a significant maize surplus, with stocks expected to exceed 28.3 million 50kg bags during the 2023–24 marketing season. 

This bumper harvest is driving down food prices nationwide, easing concerns of a potential food crisis.

The abundance of maize has led to a noticeable decrease in retail prices, impacting the prices of common pulses like beans and peas. 

“The decline in prices is attributed to good maize production in 2023. By the end of June, the average retail price of a two-kilo packet of unga was KES129 in supermarkets in Nairobi,” the report outlines.

The report highlights that by the end of June, the average retail price of a two-kilo packet of unga had dropped to KES129 in Nairobi supermarkets. 

Additionally, the wholesale price for a 90kg bag of maize decreased from KES3,450 (US$26.72) in May to KES3,250 (US$25.17) in June, with further declines anticipated as the harvesting season progresses.

The report attributes the growing maize surplus to favorable weather conditions. These conditions have led to a near-record maize harvest, reducing the need for maize imports and ensuring the security of the country’s food supply. 

Extensive rains have restored topsoil moisture, and cooler-than-normal temperatures have boosted vegetative growth. 

These favorable conditions have not only bolstered food security in Kenya but also reduced the need for maize imports. Maize import demand dropped from 516,151 (50kg) bags in May to 389,778 bags in June, following a peak of 633,555 bags in March.

“The improved maize crop production in 2023 and increased local supplies of most food staples are impacting the importation of basic staples, showing a general declining trend since January 2024,” the report states.

The surplus is further amplified by the significant carry-over stock of 35.2 million bags from the previous season, projected to double by September. 

The report notes that low-altitude counties such as Bomet, Narok, Nyamira, and parts of Migori are set to contribute approximately 20.5 million bags to the national supply, strengthening the maize market and reinforcing Kenya’s food security.

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