GLOBAL – On 29 July 2024, RaboResearch reported positive trends in the global aquaculture industry, noting improving demand for salmon and shrimp in the year’s second half, signaling a potential sector recovery.

This comes despite ongoing biological challenges in farming these species, with the industry finding support in the recovering Western economies. A notable decrease in feed costs, driven by a rebound in fish meal supply, provides a silver lining for the aquaculture sector.

Gorjan Nikolik, Senior Global Seafood Specialist for RaboResearch, noted that the salmon market continues to face a tight supply, leading to sustained high prices through the latter half of 2024. Seasonal patterns will influence pricing, but the overall trend suggests that costs will remain above average. 

Norway and Scotland are anticipated to see a supply recovery, although this is tentative due to unresolved biological issues. In contrast, the US and Asia are experiencing depressed demand, which has prevented prices from offsetting the high costs resulting from weak biological performance. Nonetheless, the expected reduction in feed costs should offer some relief to producers.

The shrimp sector shows signs of a turnaround, particularly in Western markets, where demand and prices gradually increase as inflation eases. Due to an improved fish meal supply, the industry is set to benefit from lower farming costs. 

However, the recovery remains fragile, with an expected decline in Chinese import demand. Positive supply growth from Ecuador, India, and Vietnam could lead to an oversupply, casting doubt on a price recovery in the second half of 2024. 

The depressed profitability of shrimp farming continues to favor large, sophisticated operations, leading to increased industry consolidation.

Another significant aspect of the report is the anticipated softening of fish meal prices as supply increases. This is expected to lower farming costs for salmon and shrimp producers, offering a glimmer of hope for the industry. 

However, the overall recovery remains tentative, with market dynamics in key regions such as China playing a critical role in determining the pace and stability of the industry’s rebound.

Yet, the industry must navigate biological challenges, market volatility, and regional demand fluctuations to sustain its growth trajectory through 2024 and beyond.

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