SOUTH AFRICA – After enduring an El Niño-induced mid-summer drought, South Africa is set to see a significant rebound in corn production in the marketing year (MY) 2024/25, according to the July report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Projections indicate a rise to 16.5 million metric tons (MMT) in Africa’s largest corn producer, contingent on normal weather conditions and an expansion of the planted area.
The recent drought has taken a toll, causing higher local corn prices and a reduced corn crop of 14 MMT in MY 2023/24.
However, the outlook for MY 2024/25 is optimistic as farmers plan to expand the corn-planted area in response to these elevated prices. An expected 4 percent increase in the planted area could see South Africa’s corn fields grow to 3.1 million hectares (MHa).
White corn, a staple food for many Southern African households, will see a notable increase in planting. The region experienced a significant drop in white corn production in MY 2023/24, intensifying the need for a recovery. White corn is especially valued in the region as it is often milled into meal, a crucial source of carbohydrates for most households.
However, Post foresees that the oilseed area in South Africa will be maintained at elevated levels in MY 2024/25, as production dropped by 36 percent in MY 2023/24, restricting the land available for an extensive expansion in corn area.
Despite the challenges faced in MY 2023/24, South Africa is poised to maintain its status as a net exporter of corn.
The country is expected to export about 1.5 MMT of corn in MY 2023/24, and with the anticipated increase in production, exports could rise to 2.5 MMT in MY 2024/25. Neighboring countries, particularly those with high demand for corn, will be the primary recipients.
Estimates place demand at 12 MMT for MY 2023/24 and 12.2 MMT for MY 2024/25. The growth aligns with South Africa’s historical consumption trends.
However, high local prices are expected to temper any substantial surge in demand. In MY 2022/23, total commercial corn consumption was estimated at 11.8 MMT, slightly above the previous year’s 11.4 MMT. Notably, corn for food consumption increased by 10 percent as consumers opted for staple foods amidst economic constraints.
Year-end stock levels are anticipated to expand by 20 percent to 1.8 MMT in MY 2024/25, thanks to the higher local production. In contrast, stock levels for MY 2023/24 are expected to drop by 36 percent to 1.5 MMT due to reduced production and higher regional demand.
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